How much mortgage payments rise at renewal in Ontario, by city
Data as of July 2026 (Bank of Canada rates) and 2025 Q4 (CMHC). Updated . Sources: CMHC, Bank of Canada.
Took out a mortgage in the Toronto area in late 2021? The average new mortgage loan there was $546,810. Renewing a 5-year fixed at today's average rate, the payment goes from about $2,412 to $2,907 a month: about $495 more. Across 15 Ontario metro areas the rise runs from $214 (Thunder Bay) to $495 (Toronto).
These are a model of a typical 2021 borrower, not measured payments and not a lender quote: the CMHC 2021 Q4 average value of new mortgage loans in each area, a 5-year fixed at 2.36% (the Bank of Canada's average uninsured rate for October to December 2021), a 25-year amortization, and renewal after five years at 4.49% (the July 2026 average, the latest month published).
Renewal payment increase by city
This is the 2026 renewal shock, city by city. Each row uses the same rates and amortization; only the loan size changes. Areas are CMHC census metropolitan areas, so a row covers the whole area, not one municipality.
| Area (CMHC metro area) | 2021 Q4 average value of new mortgage loans | Payment in 2021 (2.36%) | Balance left at renewal | Payment at renewal (4.49%) | Change per month | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto (incl. Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville, Milton) | $546,810 | $2,412 | $461,497 | $2,907 | +$495 | +20.5% |
| Oshawa | $469,264 | $2,070 | $396,050 | $2,495 | +$425 | +20.5% |
| Ontario (province) | $446,811 | $1,971 | $377,100 | $2,375 | +$405 | +20.5% |
| Hamilton (incl. Burlington) | $441,765 | $1,948 | $372,841 | $2,348 | +$400 | +20.5% |
| Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo | $420,176 | $1,853 | $354,621 | $2,234 | +$381 | +20.5% |
| Barrie | $418,884 | $1,847 | $353,530 | $2,227 | +$379 | +20.5% |
| Guelph | $408,223 | $1,800 | $344,532 | $2,170 | +$370 | +20.5% |
| Brantford | $368,425 | $1,625 | $310,944 | $1,959 | +$334 | +20.5% |
| London | $350,765 | $1,547 | $296,039 | $1,865 | +$318 | +20.5% |
| St. Catharines-Niagara | $344,529 | $1,519 | $290,776 | $1,832 | +$312 | +20.5% |
| Peterborough | $342,374 | $1,510 | $288,957 | $1,820 | +$310 | +20.5% |
| Kingston | $331,365 | $1,461 | $279,666 | $1,762 | +$300 | +20.5% |
| Ottawa-Gatineau (incl. Gatineau, Quebec) | $324,696 | $1,432 | $274,037 | $1,726 | +$294 | +20.5% |
| Windsor | $293,816 | $1,296 | $247,975 | $1,562 | +$266 | +20.5% |
| Greater Sudbury | $260,060 | $1,147 | $219,486 | $1,382 | +$236 | +20.5% |
| Thunder Bay | $236,487 | $1,043 | $199,591 | $1,257 | +$214 | +20.5% |
Download the data (CSV) with every input, output and source. Licence: derived from CMHC and Bank of Canada data; reuse with attribution to Jenny Tate (jenny.mortgage), CMHC and the Bank of Canada (CC BY 4.0).
Read the loan column with care. "Average value of new mortgage loans" is CMHC's term; CMHC does not say whether it is the amount drawn or the approved amount. It counts every mortgage account opened in the quarter, including refinances and moves to a new lender, and it is not seasonally adjusted. The Bank of Canada rate is an average for funds advanced by chartered banks, which includes renewals and refinancing; "5 years and over" refers to the term set when the loan was made. The model uses the uninsured rate; insured mortgages averaged lower rates: 2.24% for October to December 2021 and 4.05% in July 2026 (series V122667780).
What new borrowers actually pay now
CMHC also publishes the average scheduled monthly payment on new mortgage loans. These are measured figures, not a model: they cover every loan type, term and amortization opened in the quarter, including refinances and moves to a new lender. They do not show what a 2021 borrower pays at renewal, but they show the same direction. Between 2021 Q4 and 2025 Q4, the latest quarter CMHC has published, the average payment on new loans rose in every area, from +23.9% in Brantford to +53.8% in Kingston.
| Area (CMHC metro area) | 2021 Q4 | 2025 Q4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston | $1,528 | $2,350 | +53.8% |
| Greater Sudbury | $1,270 | $1,804 | +42.0% |
| Thunder Bay | $1,225 | $1,694 | +38.3% |
| Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo | $1,744 | $2,332 | +33.7% |
| Ottawa-Gatineau (incl. Gatineau, Quebec) | $1,468 | $1,960 | +33.5% |
| Peterborough | $1,535 | $2,020 | +31.6% |
| Hamilton (incl. Burlington) | $1,851 | $2,422 | +30.8% |
| Windsor | $1,337 | $1,727 | +29.2% |
| London | $1,512 | $1,951 | +29.0% |
| Guelph | $1,708 | $2,200 | +28.8% |
| Ontario (province) | $1,869 | $2,402 | +28.5% |
| Toronto (incl. Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville, Milton) | $2,212 | $2,817 | +27.4% |
| Barrie | $1,790 | $2,271 | +26.9% |
| St. Catharines-Niagara | $1,522 | $1,914 | +25.8% |
| Oshawa | $1,946 | $2,443 | +25.5% |
| Brantford | $1,618 | $2,005 | +23.9% |
How much each quarter-point matters
The renewal rate you are offered will not be exactly 4.49%. On the Toronto row, each 0.25 point higher adds about $61 a month and each 0.25 point lower saves about $61. The table shows the same for every area, on the balance left at renewal over the remaining 20 years.
| Area (CMHC metro area) | Payment at renewal (4.49%) | Each 0.25 point higher |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto (incl. Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville, Milton) | $2,907 | about $61 |
| Oshawa | $2,495 | about $53 |
| Ontario (province) | $2,375 | about $50 |
| Hamilton (incl. Burlington) | $2,348 | about $50 |
| Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo | $2,234 | about $47 |
| Barrie | $2,227 | about $47 |
| Guelph | $2,170 | about $46 |
| Brantford | $1,959 | about $41 |
| London | $1,865 | about $39 |
| St. Catharines-Niagara | $1,832 | about $39 |
| Peterborough | $1,820 | about $38 |
| Kingston | $1,762 | about $37 |
| Ottawa-Gatineau (incl. Gatineau, Quebec) | $1,726 | about $36 |
| Windsor | $1,562 | about $33 |
| Greater Sudbury | $1,382 | about $29 |
| Thunder Bay | $1,257 | about $27 |
A Bank of Canada decision does not set this rate. The Bank says it does not set mortgage rates; its policy rate feeds prime and variable-rate mortgages, while five-year fixed rates are more closely tied to five-year government bond yields.
The 2021 stress test against today's rate
Borrowers approved from June 1, 2021 had to qualify at the greater of their contract rate plus 2 points or 5.25%, under OSFI's rule for uninsured mortgages and the federal rule for insured ones. Before that, the floor was 4.79%, the Bank of Canada's five-year benchmark rate. At 2.36% plus 2 points, the model borrower was tested at the 5.25% floor: on the Toronto loan, a payment of about $3,259 a month over 25 years. The renewal payment of about $2,907 is lower because the rate (4.49%) is below 5.25% and the balance is smaller.
Since OSFI's letter of November 21, 2024, an uninsured straight switch at renewal (to another federally regulated lender, with no increase in the loan amount or amortization) is not subject to the minimum qualifying rate. The new lender still assesses the loan and stresses your debt payments. More in when the stress test applies.
How the numbers are worked out (one row step by step)
Toronto, step by step. Every row uses the same steps with its own loan value.
- Loan: $546,810, the CMHC average value of new mortgage loans in the Toronto CMA, 2021 Q4.
- 2021 rate: the average of the Bank of Canada's October, November and December 2021 values for uninsured 5-year-and-over fixed mortgages, (2.22% + 2.35% + 2.51%) ÷ 3 = 2.36%.
- Monthly rate, with the semi-annual compounding Canadian fixed mortgages use: r = (1 + 2.36%/2)^(1/6) − 1 = 0.1957% a month.
- Payment over 25 years (300 months): P = B × r × (1 + r)^300 ÷ ((1 + r)^300 − 1) = about $2,412 a month.
- Balance after 60 payments: B × (1 + r)^60 − P × ((1 + r)^60 − 1) ÷ r = about $461,497.
- Renewal payment: the same formula on that balance over the remaining 240 months at 4.49% (monthly rate 0.3707%) = about $2,907 a month.
- Change: about $495 a month, or 20.5%. Figures are rounded only for display.
Assumptions: monthly payments, no prepayments, the same 5-year fixed product at renewal, no change to the amortization. CMHC does not publish amortization by city, so 25 years is a model choice. Try your own numbers below; it opens with the Toronto row.
The calculator applies both rates to the same balance and remaining amortization, which gives the same payments as the steps above. To compare a renewal offer with another lender's, use the renewal calculator.
What the Bank of Canada found
Staff analytical note 2025-21 (Godbout, Su, Xu, July 2025) looks at the national mortgage stock, not any one city.
- About 60% of outstanding mortgages were expected to renew in 2025 or 2026.
- About 60% of those renewing were expected to see a payment increase. Most of that group hold a five-year fixed mortgage.
- Average payment versus December 2024: about 10% higher for 2025 renewals, about 6% higher for 2026 renewals. Those averages hide product differences.
- Five-year fixed renewers in that wave: about 15% to 20% higher. Variable-rate, variable-payment: about 5% to 7% lower on average.
The note's authors do not expect a severe worsening of financial stress for affected borrowers if labour markets stay stable. Some households will still have to cut other spending.
Questions
How do I calculate my mortgage payment at renewal?
Take three numbers from your renewal letter or latest statement: the balance at renewal, the new rate and the months of amortization left. Turn the yearly rate into a monthly rate with semi-annual compounding, r = (1 + rate/2)^(1/6) − 1, then payment = balance × r × (1 + r)^n ÷ ((1 + r)^n − 1), where n is the months left. The calculator on this page does it for you, and the renewal calculator compares two offers on the same balance.
What will my mortgage payment be at renewal in 2026?
It depends on your balance, rate and remaining amortization, so use your own numbers. For the model on this page (a 2021 borrower with the average value of new mortgage loans in their metro area, a 25-year amortization and a 5-year fixed at 2.36%), renewing at the July 2026 average of 4.49% raises the payment by about 20.5%: $214 a month in Thunder Bay up to $495 in Toronto.
Do I have to pass the stress test again at renewal?
Not under OSFI's minimum qualifying rate if you make an uninsured straight switch: since November 21, 2024, OSFI no longer expects federally regulated lenders to apply it when an uninsured mortgage moves to another federally regulated lender at renewal with no increase in the loan amount or amortization. The new lender still assesses the loan like a new one and is expected to stress your debt payments for conditions such as higher rates. Insured mortgages, credit unions and adding money follow other rules: see when the stress test applies.
Will the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision change my renewal rate?
Not directly. The October 28 decision sets the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate, now 2.25%. The Bank says it does not set mortgage rates. Banks use prime, which follows the policy rate, to price variable-rate mortgages. Five-year fixed rates are more closely tied to five-year government bond yields, which a decision can move but does not set. The rate used on this page changes only when the Bank of Canada publishes a new month of lending-rate data.
Why is the percentage increase the same in every city?
Because the model uses the same two rates and the same amortization everywhere, the payment grows in proportion to the loan: a loan twice as large has a payment twice as large, before and after renewal. So the rise is 20.5% in every row and only the dollar amount differs. Real borrowers have different rates and terms, which is why the measured CMHC payments in the second table rise by different percentages.
Does this include Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville and Burlington?
Yes. Statistics Canada places Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville and Milton in the Toronto census metropolitan area, and Burlington in the Hamilton census metropolitan area (2021 Standard Geographical Classification). CMHC publishes these figures by metropolitan area, not by municipality, so none of these cities has its own row. The Ottawa-Gatineau row includes Gatineau, Quebec.
Sources and updates
- CMHC (Equifax data), Average Value of New Mortgage Loans: Canada, Provinces and CMAs, 2012 Q3 to 2025 Q4, page dated March 25, 2026. Used: 2021 Q4. Observed October 14, 2026; no 2026 quarter published yet. CMHC notes that 2019 to 2022 data were revised.
- CMHC (Equifax data), Average Scheduled Monthly Payments for New Mortgage Loans, same range and date. Used: 2021 Q4 and 2025 Q4. Observed October 14, 2026.
- Bank of Canada, table A4 lending rates, series V122667786 (funds advanced, residential mortgages, uninsured, fixed rate 5 years and over, month-end). Used: October to December 2021 (2.22%, 2.35%, 2.51%) and July 2026 (4.49%). Observed October 14, 2026; August 2026 not yet published.
- Bank of Canada, series V122667780 (same, insured). Used in the note under the first table. Observed October 14, 2026.
- Bank of Canada, policy rate announcement of September 2, 2026 (2.25%) and October 28, 2026 announcement.
- Bank of Canada, Staff analytical note 2025-21, July 2025.
- OSFI, letters of May 20, 2021, December 17, 2021 and November 21, 2024; Department of Finance, statement of May 20, 2021.
- Statistics Canada, Standard Geographical Classification 2021, census subdivisions in the Toronto, Hamilton and Ottawa-Gatineau CMAs. Observed October 14, 2026.
- Reuse terms: CMHC data licence and Bank of Canada terms. CMHC and the Bank of Canada do not endorse this page; the calculations are Jenny Tate's.
The rates are refreshed after each monthly Bank of Canada lending-rate release, and the CMHC figures after each quarterly release. Updates:
- October 14, 2026: rebuilt as an Ontario table for 15 metro areas with a CSV; moved from the former GTA renewal page, whose $700,000 example is retired.
- September 20, 2026: first published as a GTA renewal index.
Want to check your own renewal?
Bring the renewal letter and your latest mortgage statement. Jenny can put the offer, the payment and any switching costs on one page. Call (647) 642-7249 or book a free 15-minute call.
Jenny Tate is a Mortgage Agent Level 1 (FSRA M22002086) with Tango Financial Mortgage (ON) Corporation (FSRA 13691). This page is information, not advice for a named household and not a commitment to lend. Reporters: the press card has contact details. More about Jenny Tate's licence and credentials.