Index page · 2026 dollars · sources below

GTA Mortgage Renewal Shock Index 2026

Bank of Canada staff analytical note 2025-21 provides the national renewal context. This index turns it into one reproducible illustration: on a $700,000 balance, a move from 2.00% to 4.45% is about $890 more per month, using the calculator below.

What the Bank paper actually found

Staff analytical note 2025-21 (Godbout, Su, Xu, July 2025) uses the RESL2 mortgage stock. It is national, not a GTA census.

• About 60% of outstanding mortgages were expected to renew in 2025 or 2026.
• About 60% of those renewing were expected to see a payment increase. Most of that group hold a five-year fixed mortgage.
• Average payment versus December 2024: about 10% higher for 2025 renewals, about 6% higher for 2026 renewals. Those averages hide product differences.
• Five-year fixed renewers in that wave: about 15% to 20% higher. Variable-rate, variable-payment: about 5% to 7% lower on average.

The Bank does not expect a severe system-wide stress event if labour markets stay stable. Some households will still have to cut other spending. This page does not convert that into a scare headline.

One reproducible illustration

Inputs: $700,000 remaining balance, 25 years remaining amortization, Canadian semi-annual compounding, 2.00% contract rate to 4.45% renewal rate. The calculator returns about $2,964 per month at 2.00% and about $3,855 at 4.45%, an increase of about $890 per month when rounded to the nearest ten dollars. It is not a lender quote.

Remaining balance (CAD) Remaining amortization (years) Current contract rate (%) Renewal rate (%)

Method and disclaimer

Canadian residential mortgages compound interest semi-annually, not in advance. Monthly rate r = (1 + annual/2)^(1/6) − 1. Payment = B × r × (1+r)^n / ((1+r)^n − 1), with n = remaining months. No extra prepayments. Same product and term at renewal, matching the Bank note's product-hold assumption.

Jenny Tate is a Mortgage Agent Level 1 (FSRA M22002086) with Tango Financial Mortgage (ON) Corporation (FSRA 13691). This is information, not a commitment to lend and not advice for a named household. Verify the Bank paper yourself. Related tools with no email gate: renewal calculator and Jenny Tate's licence and credentials.